Quebec: real GDP up 0.5% in November

Real GDP at basic prices:

Latest: +0.5% Last month: -0.1% Previous: -0.2%

FACTS: According to the Institut de la statistique du Québec, the province’s real GDP at basic prices grew 0.5 % in November (0.4% in Canada), regaining more than all of the ground lost in September and October. Output remained stable in goods-producing industries, with a second straight monthly decline in residential construction (-5.0%) and mining (-2.3%) offsetting a rebound in the other primary industries (+0.9%), electricity (+2.0%) and manufacturing (+0.3%).
Regarding this last sector, output was up in 10 out of 20 industry groups, accounting for 40% of manufacturing production. In fact, had it not been for a drop in transportation equipment output (-2.7%), the manufacturing sector would have expanded 0.7%.Hence, service output provided all of the economic growth on the month with a 0.6% advance. Half of this gain was supplied by wholesale trade (+4.3%) and more than one quarter by finance, insurance, real estate services and leasing (+0.7%). Resale trade (+1.3%) was a strong contributor as well.

OPINION: The Quebec economy’s bad streak from July to October (top chart) seems to have been broken, especially if the surge in exports in December (middle chart) impacts economic growth. If so, there will be no more talk of technical recession in Quebec in the second half of 2010. Indeed, after two months, economic growth stood at 0.2% annualized in Q4 (bottom chart). Consequently, our economic growth forecast of 2.9% for 2010 remains highly plausible. For 2011, despite a stronger contribution expected from external trade, we believe that economic growth will slow somewhat under the effects of a levelling-off of public administration investment, a pullback in residential construction, and a higher PST.

Similar Posts:

Share
February 22, 2011 • Tags: November, Real Gdp • Posted in: Financial News

Leave a Reply